Primera Division · Sunday, 16 August 2026 · 19:00. Final score 0–4 (half-time 0–1). Before kick-off we rated it 62% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 4, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 38% | 62% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 14% | 86% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 55% | 45% | Yes |
The result model puts Defensor Sporting at 31%, the draw at 31% and Liverpool Montevideo at 37%, from expected goals of 0.92 and 1.03.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.40 | 39% | 38% | -1% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.53 | 61% | 62% | +1% |
| Both teams to score | 2.10 | 44% | 55% | +11% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Defensor Sporting 2.50, draw 3.00, Liverpool Montevideo 2.55.
The league sets the starting point. Primera Division has produced over 2.5 goals in 44% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Defensor Sporting have 6 in 23 this season (4 of 12 at home), Liverpool Montevideo 9 in 23 (4 of 12 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 36% and 40%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 39%.
Head to head. These sides have met 5 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 60%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 41%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 31%, from expected goals of 0.92 for Defensor Sporting and 1.03 for Liverpool Montevideo. Folding in 30% of that view gives 38%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Defensor Sporting | 23 | 26% | 0% | 52% |
| Liverpool Montevideo | 23 | 39% | 13% | 43% |
More: Defensor Sporting season stats · Liverpool Montevideo season stats · Primera Division table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.