First League · Sunday, 16 August 2026 · 17:00. Final score 5–0 (half-time 2–0). Before kick-off we rated it 58% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 5, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 42% | 58% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21% | 79% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 42% | 58% | No |
The result model puts CSKA Sofia at 50%, the draw at 24% and Botev Vratsa at 26%, from expected goals of 1.73 and 1.19.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.90 | 50% | 42% | -8% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.90 | 50% | 58% | +8% |
| Both teams to score | 2.25 | 41% | 42% | +1% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: CSKA Sofia 1.38, draw 4.33, Botev Vratsa 9.50.
The league sets the starting point. First League has produced over 2.5 goals in 45% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. CSKA Sofia have 3 in 4 this season (2 of 2 at home), Botev Vratsa 3 in 4 (2 of 2 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 51% and 51%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 4 and 4 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 36% and 38%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 38%.
Head to head. These sides have met 6 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 17%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 36%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 56%, from expected goals of 1.73 for CSKA Sofia and 1.19 for Botev Vratsa. Folding in 30% of that view gives 42%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CSKA Sofia | 4 | 75% | 25% | 50% |
| Botev Vratsa | 4 | 75% | 0% | 75% |
More: CSKA Sofia season stats · Botev Vratsa season stats · First League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.