Ekstraklasa · Sunday, 16 August 2026 · 16:30. Final score 2–1 (half-time 0–1). Before kick-off we rated it 53% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 3, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 53% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% | 73% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 54% | 46% | Yes |
The result model puts Cracovia Krakow at 42%, the draw at 26% and Raków Częstochowa at 32%, from expected goals of 1.47 and 1.25.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.15 | 44% | 47% | +4% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.67 | 56% | 53% | -4% |
| Both teams to score | 1.91 | 50% | 54% | +4% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Cracovia Krakow 2.45, draw 3.10, Raków Częstochowa 2.75.
The league sets the starting point. Ekstraklasa has produced over 2.5 goals in 53% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Cracovia Krakow have 0 in 3 this season (0 of 1 at home), Raków Częstochowa 2 in 2 (1 of 1 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 47% and 57%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 3 and 2 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 47% and 48%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 49%.
Head to head. These sides have met 6 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 17%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 46%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 51%, from expected goals of 1.47 for Cracovia Krakow and 1.25 for Raków Częstochowa. Folding in 30% of that view gives 47%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cracovia Krakow | 3 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Raków Częstochowa | 2 | 100% | 0% | 100% |
More: Cracovia Krakow season stats · Raków Częstochowa season stats · Ekstraklasa table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.