Liga I · Sunday, 16 August 2026 · 19:30. Final score 3–0 (half-time 1–0). Before kick-off we rated it 53% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 3, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 53% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26% | 74% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 52% | 48% | Yes |
The result model puts Corvinul Hunedoara at 62%, the draw at 22% and CFR 1907 Cluj at 16%, from expected goals of 1.85 and 0.81.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.00 | 47% | 47% | 0% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.80 | 53% | 53% | +0% |
| Both teams to score | 1.73 | 54% | 52% | -2% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Corvinul Hunedoara 2.55, draw 3.10, CFR 1907 Cluj 2.62.
The league sets the starting point. Liga I has produced over 2.5 goals in 46% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Corvinul Hunedoara have 1 in 4 this season (1 of 2 at home), CFR 1907 Cluj 3 in 3 (2 of 2 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 44% and 53%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 4 and 3 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 44% and 49%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 46%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 50%, from expected goals of 1.85 for Corvinul Hunedoara and 0.81 for CFR 1907 Cluj. Folding in 30% of that view gives 47%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corvinul Hunedoara | 4 | 25% | 0% | 25% |
| CFR 1907 Cluj | 3 | 100% | 67% | 67% |
More: Corvinul Hunedoara season stats · CFR 1907 Cluj season stats · Liga I table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.