USL Championship · Sunday, 16 August 2026 · 02:00. Final score 3–2 (half-time 1–1). Before kick-off we rated it 54% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 5, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 46% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31% | 69% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 55% | 45% | Yes |
The result model puts Colorado Springs at 51%, the draw at 22% and Birmingham Legion at 27%, from expected goals of 1.88 and 1.32.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.57 | 60% | 54% | -6% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.35 | 40% | 46% | +6% |
| Both teams to score | 1.73 | 54% | 55% | +1% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Colorado Springs 1.36, draw 4.50, Birmingham Legion 6.25.
The league sets the starting point. USL Championship has produced over 2.5 goals in 49% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Colorado Springs have 10 in 18 this season (6 of 9 at home), Birmingham Legion 7 in 17 (4 of 7 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 54% and 48%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 51%.
Head to head. These sides have met 2 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 50%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 50%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 62%, from expected goals of 1.88 for Colorado Springs and 1.32 for Birmingham Legion. Folding in 30% of that view gives 54%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colorado Springs | 18 | 56% | 39% | 61% |
| Birmingham Legion | 17 | 41% | 24% | 65% |
More: Colorado Springs season stats · Birmingham Legion season stats · USL Championship table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.