MLS · Sunday, 16 August 2026 · 02:30. Final score 2–0 (half-time 0–0). Before kick-off we rated it 66% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 2, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 66% | 34% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 42% | 58% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 63% | 37% | Yes |
The result model puts Colorado Rapids at 69%, the draw at 18% and Sporting Kansas City at 14%, from expected goals of 2.37 and 0.97.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.48 | 64% | 66% | +3% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.60 | 36% | 34% | -3% |
| Both teams to score | 1.62 | 58% | 63% | +6% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Colorado Rapids 1.45, draw 4.50, Sporting Kansas City 6.50.
The league sets the starting point. MLS has produced over 2.5 goals in 60% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Colorado Rapids have 9 in 18 this season (4 of 8 at home), Sporting Kansas City 15 in 18 (9 of 9 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 55% and 73%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 63%.
Head to head. These sides have met 5 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 100%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 67%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 65%, from expected goals of 2.37 for Colorado Rapids and 0.97 for Sporting Kansas City. Folding in 30% of that view gives 66%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colorado Rapids | 18 | 50% | 39% | 50% |
| Sporting Kansas City | 18 | 83% | 50% | 61% |
More: Colorado Rapids season stats · Sporting Kansas City season stats · MLS table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.