Primera · Sunday, 16 August 2026 · 20:00. Final score 0–2 (half-time 0–1). Before kick-off we rated it 50% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 2, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% | 72% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 50% | 50% | Yes |
The result model puts Cobresal at 50%, the draw at 25% and Concepción at 25%, from expected goals of 1.56 and 1.02.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.85 | 51% | 50% | -1% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.95 | 49% | 50% | +1% |
| Both teams to score | 1.67 | 56% | 50% | -6% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Cobresal 2.20, draw 3.30, Concepción 3.10.
The league sets the starting point. Primera has produced over 2.5 goals in 52% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Cobresal have 11 in 18 this season (4 of 8 at home), Concepción 7 in 18 (4 of 8 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 54% and 48%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 51%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 48%, from expected goals of 1.56 for Cobresal and 1.02 for Concepción. Folding in 30% of that view gives 50%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cobresal | 18 | 61% | 50% | 56% |
| Concepción | 18 | 39% | 11% | 33% |
More: Cobresal season stats · Concepción season stats · Primera table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.