MLS · Sunday, 16 August 2026 · 23:00. Final score 2–1 (half-time 2–0). Before kick-off we rated it 64% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 3, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 65% | 35% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 41% | 59% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 61% | 39% | Yes |
The result model puts Chicago Fire at 57%, the draw at 21% and Portland Timbers at 22%, from expected goals of 2.12 and 1.26.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.33 | 72% | 65% | -7% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 3.40 | 28% | 35% | +7% |
| Both teams to score | 1.40 | 66% | 61% | -5% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Chicago Fire 1.55, draw 4.50, Portland Timbers 5.25.
The league sets the starting point. MLS has produced over 2.5 goals in 60% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Chicago Fire have 13 in 17 this season (7 of 9 at home), Portland Timbers 13 in 18 (5 of 9 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 67% and 63%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 64%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 66%, from expected goals of 2.12 for Chicago Fire and 1.26 for Portland Timbers. Folding in 30% of that view gives 65%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Fire | 17 | 76% | 41% | 65% |
| Portland Timbers | 18 | 72% | 50% | 72% |
More: Chicago Fire season stats · Portland Timbers season stats · MLS table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.