Primera Clausura · Sunday, 16 August 2026 · 14:00. Final score 1–0 (half-time 1–0). Before kick-off we rated it 58% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 1, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 42% | 58% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25% | 75% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 48% | 52% | No |
The result model puts Cerro Porteno at 68%, the draw at 21% and Club Sp. San Lorenzo at 11%, from expected goals of 1.83 and 0.58.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.95 | 49% | 42% | -7% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.85 | 51% | 58% | +7% |
| Both teams to score | 2.25 | 41% | 48% | +7% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Cerro Porteno 1.36, draw 4.00, Club Sp. San Lorenzo 8.00.
The league sets the starting point. Primera Clausura has produced over 2.5 goals in 42% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Cerro Porteno have 10 in 25 this season (4 of 13 at home), Club Sp. San Lorenzo 9 in 26 (5 of 13 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 39% and 39%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 40%.
Head to head. These sides have met 2 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 50%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 41%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 44%, from expected goals of 1.83 for Cerro Porteno and 0.58 for Club Sp. San Lorenzo. Folding in 30% of that view gives 42%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cerro Porteno | 25 | 40% | 16% | 40% |
| Club Sp. San Lorenzo | 26 | 35% | 19% | 38% |
More: Cerro Porteno season stats · Club Sp. San Lorenzo season stats · Primera Clausura table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.