K League 1 · Sunday, 16 August 2026 · 11:30. Final score 3–2 (half-time 2–0). Before kick-off we rated it 63% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 5, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 37% | 63% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22% | 78% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 51% | 49% | Yes |
The result model puts Bucheon FC 1995 at 22%, the draw at 32% and Jeonbuk Motors at 46%, from expected goals of 0.67 and 1.12.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.95 | 49% | 37% | -12% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.85 | 51% | 63% | +12% |
| Both teams to score | 1.91 | 49% | 51% | +3% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Bucheon FC 1995 4.75, draw 3.75, Jeonbuk Motors 1.60.
The league sets the starting point. K League 1 has produced over 2.5 goals in 46% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Bucheon FC 1995 have 8 in 22 this season (4 of 11 at home), Jeonbuk Motors 8 in 22 (1 of 11 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 41% and 37%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 41%.
Head to head. These sides have met 2 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 50%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 41%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 27%, from expected goals of 0.67 for Bucheon FC 1995 and 1.12 for Jeonbuk Motors. Folding in 30% of that view gives 37%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bucheon FC 1995 | 22 | 36% | 23% | 41% |
| Jeonbuk Motors | 22 | 36% | 23% | 45% |
More: Bucheon FC 1995 season stats · Jeonbuk Motors season stats · K League 1 table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.