Vrouwen Eredivisie (W) · Sunday, 16 August 2026 · 15:45. Final score 2–1 (half-time 1–0). Before kick-off we rated it 58% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 3, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 43% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 43% | 57% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 54% | 46% | Yes |
The result model puts AZ W at 44%, the draw at 23% and ADO Den Haag W at 33%, from expected goals of 1.78 and 1.51.
The league sets the starting point. Vrouwen Eredivisie (W) has produced over 2.5 goals in 65% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. AZ W have 0 in 0 this season, ADO Den Haag W 0 in 0. Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 65% and 65%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 0 and 0 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 64% and 55%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 60%.
Head to head. These sides have met 6 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 33%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 58%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 64%, from expected goals of 1.78 for AZ W and 1.51 for ADO Den Haag W. Folding in 30% of that view gives 59%.
Season opener. One of these sides has not played a league game yet. Openers run about 2.5 points under their league's norm, measured across 2,727 of them, so the rating is docked to 57%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ W | 0 | — | — | — |
| ADO Den Haag W | 0 | — | — | — |
More: AZ W season stats · ADO Den Haag W season stats · Vrouwen Eredivisie (W) table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.