Serie B · Sunday, 16 August 2026 · 22:30. Final score 1–3 (half-time 0–1). Before kick-off we rated it 61% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 4, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 39% | 61% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 14% | 86% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 48% | 52% | No |
The result model puts America Mineiro at 37%, the draw at 28% and Athletic Club at 35%, from expected goals of 1.19 and 1.15.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.70 | 35% | 39% | +4% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.44 | 65% | 61% | -4% |
| Both teams to score | 2.20 | 42% | 48% | +6% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: America Mineiro 2.55, draw 3.00, Athletic Club 3.00.
The league sets the starting point. Serie B has produced over 2.5 goals in 40% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. America Mineiro have 13 in 31 this season (7 of 15 at home), Athletic Club 8 in 29 (5 of 14 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 42% and 34%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 39%.
Head to head. These sides have met 4 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 25%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 37%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 42%, from expected goals of 1.19 for America Mineiro and 1.15 for Athletic Club. Folding in 30% of that view gives 39%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| America Mineiro | 31 | 42% | 6% | 52% |
| Athletic Club | 29 | 28% | 7% | 55% |
More: America Mineiro season stats · Athletic Club season stats · Serie B table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.