Veikkausliiga · Sunday, 16 August 2026 · 15:00. Final score 2–3 (half-time 2–0). Before kick-off we rated it 53% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 5, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 53% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% | 72% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 57% | 43% | Yes |
The result model puts AC Oulu at 33%, the draw at 30% and Inter Turku at 37%, from expected goals of 1.02 and 1.11.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.00 | 47% | 47% | 0% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.80 | 53% | 53% | +0% |
| Both teams to score | 1.80 | 52% | 57% | +5% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: AC Oulu 2.88, draw 3.25, Inter Turku 2.25.
The league sets the starting point. Veikkausliiga has produced over 2.5 goals in 62% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. AC Oulu have 7 in 19 this season (2 of 9 at home), Inter Turku 6 in 19 (3 of 9 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 48% and 48%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 51%.
Head to head. These sides have met 7 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 57%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 52%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 36%, from expected goals of 1.02 for AC Oulu and 1.11 for Inter Turku. Folding in 30% of that view gives 47%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AC Oulu | 19 | 37% | 16% | 42% |
| Inter Turku | 19 | 32% | 16% | 47% |
More: AC Oulu season stats · Inter Turku season stats · Veikkausliiga table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.