Canadian Premier League · Saturday, 15 August 2026 · 02:00. Final score 1–1 (half-time 0–1). Before kick-off we rated it 60% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 2, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 40% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37% | 63% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 62% | 38% | Yes |
The result model puts Vancouver FC at 57%, the draw at 22% and Pacific FC at 21%, from expected goals of 1.95 and 1.1.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.36 | 69% | 60% | -9% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 3.00 | 31% | 40% | +9% |
| Both teams to score | 1.44 | 65% | 62% | -2% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Vancouver FC 1.40, draw 4.50, Pacific FC 5.75.
The league sets the starting point. Canadian Premier League has produced over 2.5 goals in 59% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Vancouver FC have 7 in 16 this season (4 of 9 at home), Pacific FC 11 in 15 (5 of 6 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 52% and 66%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 59%.
Head to head. These sides have met 12 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 75%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 60%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 59%, from expected goals of 1.95 for Vancouver FC and 1.1 for Pacific FC. Folding in 30% of that view gives 60%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vancouver FC | 16 | 44% | 31% | 50% |
| Pacific FC | 15 | 73% | 40% | 80% |
More: Vancouver FC season stats · Pacific FC season stats · Canadian Premier League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.