Damallsvenskan (W) · Saturday, 15 August 2026 · 12:00. Final score 0–6 (half-time 0–5). Before kick-off we rated it 58% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 6, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 42% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% | 66% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 51% | 49% | Yes |
The result model puts Uppsala W at 36%, the draw at 27% and Malmö FF W at 38%, from expected goals of 1.25 and 1.29.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.28 | 73% | 58% | -15% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 3.50 | 27% | 42% | +15% |
| Both teams to score | 2.62 | 35% | 51% | +16% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Uppsala W 26.00, draw 11.00, Malmö FF W 1.06.
The league sets the starting point. Damallsvenskan (W) has produced over 2.5 goals in 66% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Uppsala W have 10 in 13 this season (4 of 6 at home), Malmö FF W 6 in 13 (2 of 7 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 69% and 56%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 13 and 13 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 69% and 56%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 63%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 47%, from expected goals of 1.25 for Uppsala W and 1.29 for Malmö FF W. Folding in 30% of that view gives 58%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Uppsala W | 13 | 77% | 54% | 38% |
| Malmö FF W | 13 | 46% | 15% | 38% |
More: Uppsala W season stats · Malmö FF W season stats · Damallsvenskan (W) table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.