Pro League · Saturday, 15 August 2026 · 15:00. Final score 0–0 (half-time 0–0). Before kick-off we rated it 50% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 0, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31% | 69% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 54% | 46% | Yes |
The result model puts Union St. Gilloise at 45%, the draw at 24% and Zulte Waregem at 31%, from expected goals of 1.61 and 1.3.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.65 | 57% | 50% | -7% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.20 | 43% | 50% | +7% |
| Both teams to score | 1.80 | 52% | 54% | +2% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Union St. Gilloise 1.45, draw 4.20, Zulte Waregem 6.50.
The league sets the starting point. Pro League has produced over 2.5 goals in 51% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Union St. Gilloise have 1 in 1 this season, Zulte Waregem 1 in 1. Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 52% and 52%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 1 and 1 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 41% and 53%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 48%.
Head to head. These sides have met 2 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 50%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 48%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 56%, from expected goals of 1.61 for Union St. Gilloise and 1.3 for Zulte Waregem. Folding in 30% of that view gives 50%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Union St. Gilloise | 1 | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Zulte Waregem | 1 | 100% | 0% | 100% |
More: Union St. Gilloise season stats · Zulte Waregem season stats · Pro League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.