Liga 2 · Saturday, 15 August 2026 · 18:00. Final score 2–2 (half-time 0–2). Before kick-off we rated it 61% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 4, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 39% | 61% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19% | 81% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 41% | 59% | No |
The result model puts Torreense at 39%, the draw at 29% and Penafiel at 32%, from expected goals of 1.2 and 1.06.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.10 | 45% | 39% | -6% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.70 | 55% | 61% | +6% |
| Both teams to score | 1.91 | 49% | 41% | -7% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Torreense 1.73, draw 3.40, Penafiel 4.20.
The league sets the starting point. Liga 2 has produced over 2.5 goals in 44% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Torreense have 1 in 1 this season, Penafiel 0 in 1. Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 46% and 43%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 1 and 1 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 42% and 39%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 41%.
Head to head. These sides have met 6 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 17%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 39%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 39%, from expected goals of 1.2 for Torreense and 1.06 for Penafiel. Folding in 30% of that view gives 39%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
More: Torreense season stats · Penafiel season stats · Liga 2 table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.