Erovnuli Liga · Saturday, 15 August 2026 · 18:00. Final score 4–3 (half-time 3–1). Our pre-match rating was 47% for over 2.5 goals.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 53% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24% | 76% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 54% | 46% | Yes |
The result model puts Torpedo Kutaisi at 39%, the draw at 26% and FC Iberia 1999 at 35%, from expected goals of 1.4 and 1.31.
The league sets the starting point. Erovnuli Liga has produced over 2.5 goals in 51% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Torpedo Kutaisi have 10 in 20 this season (6 of 10 at home), FC Iberia 1999 9 in 19 (5 of 9 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 52% and 50%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 51%.
Head to head. These sides have met 2 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 0%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 46%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 51%, from expected goals of 1.4 for Torpedo Kutaisi and 1.31 for FC Iberia 1999. Folding in 30% of that view gives 47%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Torpedo Kutaisi | 20 | 50% | 20% | 55% |
| FC Iberia 1999 | 19 | 47% | 16% | 53% |
More: Torpedo Kutaisi season stats · FC Iberia 1999 season stats · Erovnuli Liga table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.