J2 League · Saturday, 15 August 2026. Final score 5–0 (half-time 2–0). Rebuilt from the season as it stood that morning, our rating would have been 44% for over 2.5 goals. This match is older than our frozen ratings ledger, which keeps 30 days, so that figure is a reconstruction from pre-match data rather than a number we published at the time — a distinction worth making, because only the frozen ones prove what we actually said beforehand.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% | 56% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24% | 76% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 50% | 50% | Yes |
The result model puts Tochigi City at 39%, the draw at 29% and Vanraure Hachinohe at 33%, from expected goals of 1.23 and 1.11.
The league sets the starting point. J2 League has produced over 2.5 goals in 44% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Tochigi City have 0 in 1 this season, Vanraure Hachinohe 0 in 1. Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 43% and 43%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 43%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 41%, from expected goals of 1.23 for Tochigi City and 1.11 for Vanraure Hachinohe. Folding in 30% of that view gives 42%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 44%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tochigi City | 1 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Vanraure Hachinohe | 1 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
More: Tochigi City season stats · Vanraure Hachinohe season stats · J2 League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.