J3 League · Saturday, 15 August 2026 · 11:00. Final score 1–4 (half-time 0–2). Before kick-off we rated it 59% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 5, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 42% | 58% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24% | 76% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 57% | 43% | Yes |
The result model puts Thespakusatsu Gunma at 47%, the draw at 26% and Sagamihara at 27%, from expected goals of 1.47 and 1.06.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.95 | 49% | 42% | -7% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.85 | 51% | 58% | +7% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Thespakusatsu Gunma 2.60, draw 3.10, Sagamihara 2.50.
The league sets the starting point. J3 League has produced over 2.5 goals in 47% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Thespakusatsu Gunma have 0 in 1 this season, Sagamihara 0 in 1. Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 45% and 45%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 1 and 1 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 50% and 37%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 44%.
Head to head. These sides have met 2 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 0%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 40%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 47%, from expected goals of 1.47 for Thespakusatsu Gunma and 1.06 for Sagamihara. Folding in 30% of that view gives 42%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thespakusatsu Gunma | 1 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Sagamihara | 1 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
More: Thespakusatsu Gunma season stats · Sagamihara season stats · J3 League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.