Bundesliga · Saturday, 15 August 2026 · 18:30. Final score 1–0 (half-time 0–0). Before kick-off we rated it 57% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 1, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 57% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25% | 75% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 53% | 47% | Yes |
The result model puts Sturm Graz at 47%, the draw at 26% and SCR Altach at 27%, from expected goals of 1.45 and 1.03.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.85 | 51% | 43% | -8% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.95 | 49% | 57% | +8% |
| Both teams to score | 1.80 | 52% | 53% | +1% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Sturm Graz 1.62, draw 3.80, SCR Altach 5.50.
The league sets the starting point. Bundesliga has produced over 2.5 goals in 51% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Sturm Graz have 0 in 2 this season, SCR Altach 1 in 2 (0 of 1 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 48% and 50%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 2 and 2 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 42% and 42%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 44%.
Head to head. These sides have met 6 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 33%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 43%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 45%, from expected goals of 1.45 for Sturm Graz and 1.03 for SCR Altach. Folding in 30% of that view gives 43%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sturm Graz | 2 | 0% | 0% | 50% |
| SCR Altach | 2 | 50% | 50% | 50% |
More: Sturm Graz season stats · SCR Altach season stats · Bundesliga table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.