Championship · Saturday, 15 August 2026 · 15:00. Final score 1–2 (half-time 1–1). Before kick-off we rated it 54% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 3, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 54% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20% | 80% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 51% | 49% | Yes |
The result model puts Stoke City at 42%, the draw at 26% and Swansea at 32%, from expected goals of 1.43 and 1.22.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.00 | 47% | 46% | -2% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.80 | 53% | 54% | +2% |
| Both teams to score | 1.73 | 54% | 51% | -3% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Stoke City 2.40, draw 3.25, Swansea 3.10.
The league sets the starting point. Championship has produced over 2.5 goals in 51% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Stoke City have 0 in 0 this season, Swansea 0 in 0. Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 51% and 51%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 0 and 0 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 43% and 50%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 48%.
Head to head. These sides have met 6 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 50%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 48%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 49%, from expected goals of 1.43 for Stoke City and 1.22 for Swansea. Folding in 30% of that view gives 48%.
Season opener. One of these sides has not played a league game yet. Openers run about 2.5 points under their league's norm, measured across 2,727 of them, so the rating is docked to 46%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stoke City | 0 | — | — | — |
| Swansea | 0 | — | — | — |
More: Stoke City season stats · Swansea season stats · Championship table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.