2. Bundesliga · Saturday, 15 August 2026 · 12:00. Final score 2–4 (half-time 2–2). Before kick-off we rated it 59% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 6, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 41% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% | 68% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 58% | 42% | Yes |
The result model puts SpVgg Greuther Fürth at 43%, the draw at 24% and 1. FC Nürnberg at 33%, from expected goals of 1.63 and 1.38.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.67 | 56% | 59% | +3% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.15 | 44% | 41% | -3% |
| Both teams to score | 1.53 | 61% | 58% | -3% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 3.10, draw 3.50, 1. FC Nürnberg 2.20.
The league sets the starting point. 2. Bundesliga has produced over 2.5 goals in 58% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. SpVgg Greuther Fürth have 0 in 1 this season, 1. FC Nürnberg 1 in 1. Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 56% and 59%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 1 and 1 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 63% and 53%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 58%.
Head to head. These sides have met 4 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 75%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 60%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 58%, from expected goals of 1.63 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1.38 for 1. FC Nürnberg. Folding in 30% of that view gives 59%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SpVgg Greuther Fürth | 1 | 0% | 0% | 100% |
| 1. FC Nürnberg | 1 | 100% | 0% | 0% |
More: SpVgg Greuther Fürth season stats · 1. FC Nürnberg season stats · 2. Bundesliga table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.