Serie B · Saturday, 15 August 2026 · 00:30. Final score 2–1 (half-time 2–1). Before kick-off we rated it 51% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 3, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 49% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% | 73% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 51% | 49% | Yes |
The result model puts Sport Recife at 52%, the draw at 23% and Londrina at 24%, from expected goals of 1.76 and 1.12.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.00 | 47% | 51% | +3% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.80 | 53% | 49% | -3% |
| Both teams to score | 1.91 | 49% | 51% | +2% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Sport Recife 1.67, draw 3.50, Londrina 5.50.
The league sets the starting point. Serie B has produced over 2.5 goals in 40% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Sport Recife have 7 in 21 this season (4 of 11 at home), Londrina 13 in 21 (7 of 11 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 37% and 51%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 43%.
Head to head. These sides have met 2 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 100%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 49%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 55%, from expected goals of 1.76 for Sport Recife and 1.12 for Londrina. Folding in 30% of that view gives 51%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sport Recife | 21 | 33% | 19% | 57% |
| Londrina | 21 | 62% | 38% | 52% |
More: Sport Recife season stats · Londrina season stats · Serie B table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.