NWSL (W) · Saturday, 15 August 2026 · 03:00. Final score 1–0 (half-time 0–0). Before kick-off we rated it 52% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 1, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 51% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23% | 77% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 51% | 49% | no pick |
The result model puts Seattle Reign FC W at 60%, the draw at 25% and Chicago Red Stars W at 15%, from expected goals of 1.6 and 0.66.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.44 | 65% | 49% | -16% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.62 | 35% | 51% | +16% |
| Both teams to score | 1.80 | 51% | 51% | 0% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Seattle Reign FC W 1.40, draw 5.25, Chicago Red Stars W 5.00.
The league sets the starting point. NWSL (W) has produced over 2.5 goals in 47% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Seattle Reign FC W have 10 in 17 this season (4 of 8 at home), Chicago Red Stars W 7 in 18 (4 of 9 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 51% and 44%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 47%.
Head to head. These sides have met 5 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 100%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 53%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 39%, from expected goals of 1.6 for Seattle Reign FC W and 0.66 for Chicago Red Stars W. Folding in 30% of that view gives 49%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seattle Reign FC W | 17 | 59% | 24% | 47% |
| Chicago Red Stars W | 18 | 39% | 17% | 17% |
More: Seattle Reign FC W season stats · Chicago Red Stars W season stats · NWSL (W) table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.