Damallsvenskan (W) · Saturday, 15 August 2026 · 14:00. Final score 0–1 (half-time 0–0). Before kick-off we rated it 56% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 1, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 44% | no pick |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31% | 69% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 51% | 49% | no pick |
The result model puts Rosengård W at 51%, the draw at 25% and Eskilstuna United W at 24%, from expected goals of 1.6 and 1.03.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.80 | 53% | 56% | +4% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.00 | 47% | 44% | -4% |
| Both teams to score | 1.73 | 54% | 51% | -3% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Rosengård W 1.70, draw 3.80, Eskilstuna United W 3.80.
The league sets the starting point. Damallsvenskan (W) has produced over 2.5 goals in 66% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Rosengård W have 7 in 13 this season (4 of 6 at home), Eskilstuna United W 4 in 13 (2 of 6 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 63% and 53%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 13 and 13 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 63% and 53%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 59%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 49%, from expected goals of 1.6 for Rosengård W and 1.03 for Eskilstuna United W. Folding in 30% of that view gives 56%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rosengård W | 13 | 54% | 23% | 69% |
| Eskilstuna United W | 13 | 31% | 8% | 15% |
More: Rosengård W season stats · Eskilstuna United W season stats · Damallsvenskan (W) table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.