J3 League · Saturday, 15 August 2026 · 11:00. Final score 1–0 (half-time 1–0). Before kick-off we rated it 59% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 1, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 41% | 59% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21% | 79% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 50% | 50% | Yes |
The result model puts Renofa Yamaguchi at 47%, the draw at 26% and FC Ryukyu at 27%, from expected goals of 1.46 and 1.05.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.95 | 49% | 41% | -7% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.85 | 51% | 59% | +7% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Renofa Yamaguchi 1.73, draw 3.40, FC Ryukyu 4.20.
The league sets the starting point. J3 League has produced over 2.5 goals in 47% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Renofa Yamaguchi have 0 in 1 this season, FC Ryukyu 0 in 0. Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 45% and 47%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 1 and 0 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 42% and 42%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 43%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 46%, from expected goals of 1.46 for Renofa Yamaguchi and 1.05 for FC Ryukyu. Folding in 30% of that view gives 44%.
Season opener. One of these sides has not played a league game yet. Openers run about 2.5 points under their league's norm, measured across 2,727 of them, so the rating is docked to 41%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Renofa Yamaguchi | 1 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| FC Ryukyu | 0 | — | — | — |
More: Renofa Yamaguchi season stats · FC Ryukyu season stats · J3 League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.