Brasileirao (W) · Saturday, 15 August 2026 · 21:00. Final score 6–2 (half-time 4–1). Before kick-off we rated it 58% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 8, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 41% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35% | 65% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 53% | 47% | Yes |
The result model puts RB Bragantino W at 70%, the draw at 18% and Vitória BA W at 12%, from expected goals of 2.2 and 0.79.
The league sets the starting point. Brasileirao (W) has produced over 2.5 goals in 56% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. RB Bragantino W have 9 in 15 this season (5 of 8 at home), Vitória BA W 11 in 15 (5 of 8 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 58% and 62%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 59%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 57%, from expected goals of 2.2 for RB Bragantino W and 0.79 for Vitória BA W. Folding in 30% of that view gives 59%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB Bragantino W | 15 | 60% | 27% | 53% |
| Vitória BA W | 15 | 73% | 53% | 40% |
More: RB Bragantino W season stats · Vitória BA W season stats · Brasileirao (W) table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.