NWSL (W) · Saturday, 15 August 2026 · 23:30. Final score 4–1 (half-time 1–0). Before kick-off we rated it 53% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 5, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 52% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25% | 75% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 55% | 45% | Yes |
The result model puts Racing Louisville W at 46%, the draw at 27% and Boston Legacy W at 27%, from expected goals of 1.4 and 1.02.
The league sets the starting point. NWSL (W) has produced over 2.5 goals in 47% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Racing Louisville W have 13 in 18 this season (5 of 8 at home), Boston Legacy W 9 in 19 (1 of 7 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 57% and 43%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 49%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 44%, from expected goals of 1.4 for Racing Louisville W and 1.02 for Boston Legacy W. Folding in 30% of that view gives 48%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Racing Louisville W | 18 | 72% | 39% | 72% |
| Boston Legacy W | 19 | 47% | 21% | 58% |
More: Racing Louisville W season stats · Boston Legacy W season stats · NWSL (W) table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.