Primera Nacional · Saturday, 15 August 2026 · 23:00. Final score 3–0 (half-time 2–0). Before kick-off we rated it 74% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 3, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 26% | 74% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 10% | 90% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 37% | 63% | No |
The result model puts Quilmes at 49%, the draw at 35% and San Telmo at 16%, from expected goals of 1.02 and 0.46.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.35 | 40% | 26% | -14% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.57 | 60% | 74% | +14% |
| Both teams to score | 2.25 | 41% | 37% | -4% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Quilmes 1.62, draw 3.40, San Telmo 6.50.
The league sets the starting point. Primera Nacional has produced over 2.5 goals in 29% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Quilmes have 8 in 24 this season (3 of 12 at home), San Telmo 7 in 23 (3 of 11 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 30% and 29%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 30%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 19%, from expected goals of 1.02 for Quilmes and 0.46 for San Telmo. Folding in 30% of that view gives 26%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
More: Quilmes season stats · San Telmo season stats · Primera Nacional table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.