Ykkosliiga · Saturday, 15 August 2026 · 16:00. Final score 1–1 (half-time 0–0). Before kick-off we rated it 52% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 2, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 52% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% | 72% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 63% | 37% | Yes |
The result model puts PK-35 at 47%, the draw at 26% and Klubi-04 at 28%, from expected goals of 1.5 and 1.1.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.75 | 54% | 48% | -6% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.05 | 46% | 52% | +6% |
| Both teams to score | 1.80 | 51% | 63% | +12% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: PK-35 1.70, draw 3.75, Klubi-04 4.10.
The league sets the starting point. Ykkosliiga has produced over 2.5 goals in 60% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. PK-35 have 8 in 18 this season (5 of 9 at home), Klubi-04 4 in 18 (2 of 9 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 55% and 43%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 51%.
Head to head. These sides have met 5 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 20%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 48%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 48%, from expected goals of 1.5 for PK-35 and 1.1 for Klubi-04. Folding in 30% of that view gives 48%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
More: PK-35 season stats · Klubi-04 season stats · Ykkosliiga table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.