Ekstraklasa · Saturday, 15 August 2026 · 16:30. Final score 3–4 (half-time 0–1). Before kick-off we rated it 58% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 7, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 42% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37% | 63% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 60% | 40% | Yes |
The result model puts Piast Gliwice at 51%, the draw at 22% and Wieczysta Kraków at 27%, from expected goals of 1.93 and 1.35.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.70 | 55% | 58% | +3% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.10 | 45% | 42% | -3% |
| Both teams to score | 1.57 | 59% | 60% | +1% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Piast Gliwice 2.20, draw 3.30, Wieczysta Kraków 3.00.
The league sets the starting point. Ekstraklasa has produced over 2.5 goals in 53% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Piast Gliwice have 2 in 3 this season (1 of 1 at home), Wieczysta Kraków 2 in 2 (1 of 1 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 56% and 57%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 3 and 2 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 53% and 59%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 56%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 64%, from expected goals of 1.93 for Piast Gliwice and 1.35 for Wieczysta Kraków. Folding in 30% of that view gives 58%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Piast Gliwice | 3 | 67% | 33% | 33% |
| Wieczysta Kraków | 2 | 100% | 0% | 100% |
More: Piast Gliwice season stats · Wieczysta Kraków season stats · Ekstraklasa table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.