NWSL (W) · Saturday, 15 August 2026 · 01:00. Final score 2–1 (half-time 2–1). Before kick-off we rated it 56% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 3, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% | 56% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20% | 80% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 53% | 47% | Yes |
The result model puts NJ/NY Gotham FC W at 57%, the draw at 27% and Kansas City W at 17%, from expected goals of 1.47 and 0.66.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.80 | 53% | 44% | -9% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.00 | 47% | 56% | +9% |
| Both teams to score | 1.83 | 50% | 53% | +3% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: NJ/NY Gotham FC W 1.75, draw 3.60, Kansas City W 4.00.
The league sets the starting point. NWSL (W) has produced over 2.5 goals in 47% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. NJ/NY Gotham FC W have 5 in 19 this season (2 of 10 at home), Kansas City W 14 in 19 (7 of 10 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 36% and 59%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 47%.
Head to head. These sides have met 7 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 43%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 47%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 36%, from expected goals of 1.47 for NJ/NY Gotham FC W and 0.66 for Kansas City W. Folding in 30% of that view gives 44%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJ/NY Gotham FC W | 19 | 26% | 16% | 26% |
| Kansas City W | 19 | 74% | 21% | 53% |
More: NJ/NY Gotham FC W season stats · Kansas City W season stats · NWSL (W) table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.