League Two · Saturday, 15 August 2026 · 12:30. Final score 3–0 (half-time 2–0). Before kick-off we rated it 53% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 3, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 49% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25% | 75% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 51% | 49% | Yes |
The result model puts Newport County at 41%, the draw at 26% and Rochdale at 33%, from expected goals of 1.38 and 1.21.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.00 | 47% | 51% | +4% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.80 | 53% | 49% | -4% |
| Both teams to score | 1.80 | 51% | 51% | 0% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Newport County 3.00, draw 3.40, Rochdale 2.25.
The league sets the starting point. League Two has produced over 2.5 goals in 48% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Newport County have 0 in 0 this season, Rochdale 0 in 0. Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 48% and 48%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 0 and 0 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 57% and 60%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 56%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 48%, from expected goals of 1.38 for Newport County and 1.21 for Rochdale. Folding in 30% of that view gives 54%.
Season opener. One of these sides has not played a league game yet. Openers run about 2.5 points under their league's norm, measured across 2,727 of them, so the rating is docked to 51%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newport County | 0 | — | — | — |
| Rochdale | 0 | — | — | — |
More: Newport County season stats · Rochdale season stats · League Two table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.