Liga Profesional · Saturday, 15 August 2026 · 23:00. Final score 2–0 (half-time 0–0). Before kick-off we rated it 72% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 2, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 28% | 72% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 14% | 86% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 46% | 54% | No |
The result model puts Newells Old Boys at 43%, the draw at 34% and Deportivo Riestra at 23%, from expected goals of 0.99 and 0.64.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 3.40 | 28% | 28% | +0% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.33 | 72% | 72% | 0% |
| Both teams to score | 2.38 | 39% | 46% | +6% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Newells Old Boys 2.70, draw 2.75, Deportivo Riestra 3.20.
The league sets the starting point. Liga Profesional has produced over 2.5 goals in 33% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Newells Old Boys have 8 in 20 this season (2 of 10 at home), Deportivo Riestra 2 in 20 (1 of 9 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 33% and 22%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 29%.
Head to head. These sides have met 2 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 50%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 31%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 23%, from expected goals of 0.99 for Newells Old Boys and 0.64 for Deportivo Riestra. Folding in 30% of that view gives 28%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newells Old Boys | 20 | 40% | 25% | 55% |
| Deportivo Riestra | 20 | 10% | 0% | 20% |
More: Newells Old Boys season stats · Deportivo Riestra season stats · Liga Profesional table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.