Brasileirao (W) · Saturday, 15 August 2026 · 22:00. Final score 1–2 (half-time 0–1). Before kick-off we rated it 56% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 3, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 55% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25% | 75% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 54% | 46% | Yes |
The result model puts Mixto W at 33%, the draw at 32% and Cruzeiro W at 35%, from expected goals of 0.91 and 0.94.
The league sets the starting point. Brasileirao (W) has produced over 2.5 goals in 56% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Mixto W have 7 in 15 this season (1 of 7 at home), Cruzeiro W 9 in 15 (2 of 7 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 48% and 54%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 52%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 28%, from expected goals of 0.91 for Mixto W and 0.94 for Cruzeiro W. Folding in 30% of that view gives 45%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mixto W | 15 | 47% | 20% | 40% |
| Cruzeiro W | 15 | 60% | 47% | 67% |
More: Mixto W season stats · Cruzeiro W season stats · Brasileirao (W) table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.