Veikkausliiga · Saturday, 15 August 2026 · 17:00. Final score 2–0 (half-time 1–0). Before kick-off we rated it 56% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 2, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 44% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% | 66% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 58% | 42% | Yes |
The result model puts Mariehamn at 29%, the draw at 26% and SJK at 44%, from expected goals of 1.1 and 1.42.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.44 | 65% | 56% | -9% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.70 | 35% | 44% | +9% |
| Both teams to score | 1.53 | 61% | 58% | -3% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Mariehamn 5.00, draw 4.00, SJK 1.55.
The league sets the starting point. Veikkausliiga has produced over 2.5 goals in 62% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Mariehamn have 9 in 19 this season (3 of 9 at home), SJK 11 in 19 (5 of 9 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 53% and 60%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 58%.
Head to head. These sides have met 6 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 83%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 60%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 46%, from expected goals of 1.1 for Mariehamn and 1.42 for SJK. Folding in 30% of that view gives 56%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
More: Mariehamn season stats · SJK season stats · Veikkausliiga table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.