Eliteserien · Saturday, 15 August 2026 · 15:00. Final score 1–1 (half-time 0–0). Before kick-off we rated it 53% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 2, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 47% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% | 71% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 54% | 46% | Yes |
The result model puts KFUM Oslo at 34%, the draw at 27% and Lillestrom at 38%, from expected goals of 1.19 and 1.28.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.62 | 58% | 53% | -5% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.25 | 42% | 47% | +5% |
| Both teams to score | 1.53 | 61% | 54% | -7% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: KFUM Oslo 3.20, draw 3.60, Lillestrom 2.10.
The league sets the starting point. Eliteserien has produced over 2.5 goals in 62% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. KFUM Oslo have 9 in 16 this season (3 of 9 at home), Lillestrom 8 in 16 (2 of 8 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 56% and 53%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 56%.
Head to head. These sides have met 3 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 67%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 57%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 45%, from expected goals of 1.19 for KFUM Oslo and 1.28 for Lillestrom. Folding in 30% of that view gives 53%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KFUM Oslo | 16 | 56% | 31% | 50% |
| Lillestrom | 16 | 50% | 31% | 38% |
More: KFUM Oslo season stats · Lillestrom season stats · Eliteserien table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.