J3 League · Saturday, 15 August 2026 · 11:30. Final score 4–3 (half-time 0–2). Before kick-off we rated it 54% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 7, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 45% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% | 72% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 59% | 41% | Yes |
The result model puts Kanazawa at 45%, the draw at 27% and Fukushima United at 29%, from expected goals of 1.42 and 1.08.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.80 | 53% | 55% | +2% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.00 | 47% | 45% | -2% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Kanazawa 1.83, draw 3.50, Fukushima United 3.70.
The league sets the starting point. J3 League has produced over 2.5 goals in 47% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Kanazawa have 1 in 1 this season, Fukushima United 1 in 1. Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 48% and 48%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 1 and 1 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 53% and 65%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 57%.
Head to head. These sides have met 4 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 75%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 58%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 46%, from expected goals of 1.42 for Kanazawa and 1.08 for Fukushima United. Folding in 30% of that view gives 55%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kanazawa | 1 | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Fukushima United | 1 | 100% | 0% | 100% |
More: Kanazawa season stats · Fukushima United season stats · J3 League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.