Serie B · Saturday, 15 August 2026 · 22:30. Final score 0–0 (half-time 0–0). Before kick-off we rated it 62% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 0, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 38% | 62% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 13% | 87% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 45% | 55% | No |
The result model puts Juventude at 51%, the draw at 31% and Fortaleza EC at 18%, from expected goals of 1.21 and 0.58.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.70 | 35% | 38% | +3% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.44 | 65% | 62% | -3% |
| Both teams to score | 2.20 | 42% | 45% | +3% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Juventude 2.30, draw 3.00, Fortaleza EC 3.40.
The league sets the starting point. Serie B has produced over 2.5 goals in 40% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Juventude have 5 in 21 this season (2 of 11 at home), Fortaleza EC 9 in 21 (3 of 11 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 31% and 39%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 36%.
Head to head. These sides have met 5 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 100%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 42%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 27%, from expected goals of 1.21 for Juventude and 0.58 for Fortaleza EC. Folding in 30% of that view gives 38%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juventude | 21 | 24% | 5% | 19% |
| Fortaleza EC | 21 | 43% | 14% | 38% |
More: Juventude season stats · Fortaleza EC season stats · Serie B table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.