HNL · Saturday, 15 August 2026 · 17:30. Final score 3–0 (half-time 2–0). Before kick-off we rated it 55% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 3, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 45% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31% | 69% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 56% | 44% | Yes |
The result model puts Istra 1961 at 44%, the draw at 24% and NK Slaven Belupo at 32%, from expected goals of 1.67 and 1.4.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.85 | 51% | 55% | +3% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.95 | 49% | 45% | -3% |
| Both teams to score | 1.73 | 54% | 56% | +2% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Istra 1961 1.83, draw 3.40, NK Slaven Belupo 4.00.
The league sets the starting point. HNL has produced over 2.5 goals in 50% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Istra 1961 have 2 in 2 this season (1 of 1 at home), NK Slaven Belupo 1 in 2 (0 of 1 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 54% and 48%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 2 and 2 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 51% and 59%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 54%.
Head to head. These sides have met 12 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 42%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 53%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 59%, from expected goals of 1.67 for Istra 1961 and 1.4 for NK Slaven Belupo. Folding in 30% of that view gives 55%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Istra 1961 | 2 | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| NK Slaven Belupo | 2 | 50% | 50% | 50% |
More: Istra 1961 season stats · NK Slaven Belupo season stats · HNL table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.