1. Division · Saturday, 15 August 2026 · 12:00. Final score 1–1 (half-time 0–1). Before kick-off we rated it 57% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 2, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 43% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37% | 63% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 56% | 44% | Yes |
The result model puts Hillerød at 34%, the draw at 23% and Aarhus Fremad at 42%, from expected goals of 1.49 and 1.68.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.73 | 55% | 57% | +3% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.08 | 45% | 43% | -3% |
| Both teams to score | 1.62 | 58% | 56% | -1% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Hillerød 3.20, draw 3.60, Aarhus Fremad 2.10.
The league sets the starting point. 1. Division has produced over 2.5 goals in 55% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Hillerød have 2 in 3 this season (1 of 1 at home), Aarhus Fremad 3 in 3 (1 of 1 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 57% and 60%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 3 and 3 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 59% and 55%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 56%.
Head to head. These sides have met 2 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 50%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 56%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 61%, from expected goals of 1.49 for Hillerød and 1.68 for Aarhus Fremad. Folding in 30% of that view gives 57%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hillerød | 3 | 67% | 67% | 67% |
| Aarhus Fremad | 3 | 100% | 33% | 100% |
More: Hillerød season stats · Aarhus Fremad season stats · 1. Division table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.