K League 1 · Saturday, 15 August 2026 · 11:30. Final score 1–2 (half-time 0–1). Before kick-off we rated it 55% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 3, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 55% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26% | 74% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 48% | 52% | No |
The result model puts Gwangju FC at 20%, the draw at 23% and Pohang Steelers at 57%, from expected goals of 0.96 and 1.79.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.40 | 39% | 45% | +6% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.53 | 61% | 55% | -6% |
| Both teams to score | 2.10 | 44% | 48% | +4% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Gwangju FC 3.80, draw 3.10, Pohang Steelers 1.95.
The league sets the starting point. K League 1 has produced over 2.5 goals in 46% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Gwangju FC have 10 in 22 this season (5 of 11 at home), Pohang Steelers 5 in 22 (5 of 11 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 46% and 38%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 43%.
Head to head. These sides have met 9 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 33%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 42%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 52%, from expected goals of 0.96 for Gwangju FC and 1.79 for Pohang Steelers. Folding in 30% of that view gives 45%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gwangju FC | 22 | 45% | 32% | 36% |
| Pohang Steelers | 22 | 23% | 14% | 32% |
More: Gwangju FC season stats · Pohang Steelers season stats · K League 1 table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.