Primera Nacional · Saturday, 15 August 2026 · 22:00. Final score 1–2 (half-time 1–0). Before kick-off we rated it 59% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 3, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 41% | 59% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20% | 80% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 41% | 59% | No |
The result model puts Godoy Cruz at 53%, the draw at 25% and Deportivo Maipu at 22%, from expected goals of 1.65 and 0.98.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.60 | 36% | 41% | +4% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.48 | 64% | 59% | -4% |
| Both teams to score | 2.25 | 41% | 41% | 0% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Godoy Cruz 1.75, draw 3.10, Deportivo Maipu 5.50.
The league sets the starting point. Primera Nacional has produced over 2.5 goals in 29% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Godoy Cruz have 9 in 23 this season (7 of 12 at home), Deportivo Maipu 11 in 24 (7 of 12 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 38% and 40%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 37%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 49%, from expected goals of 1.65 for Godoy Cruz and 0.98 for Deportivo Maipu. Folding in 30% of that view gives 41%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Godoy Cruz | 23 | 39% | 17% | 48% |
| Deportivo Maipu | 24 | 46% | 29% | 46% |
More: Godoy Cruz season stats · Deportivo Maipu season stats · Primera Nacional table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.