J2 League · Saturday, 15 August 2026 · 10:30. Final score 3–1 (half-time 1–1). Before kick-off we rated it 57% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 4, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% | 56% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25% | 75% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 53% | 47% | Yes |
The result model puts Fujieda MYFC at 49%, the draw at 27% and Iwaki at 24%, from expected goals of 1.44 and 0.92.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.30 | 41% | 44% | +3% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.60 | 59% | 56% | -3% |
| Both teams to score | 1.91 | 49% | 53% | +5% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Fujieda MYFC 3.10, draw 3.20, Iwaki 2.30.
The league sets the starting point. J2 League has produced over 2.5 goals in 45% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Fujieda MYFC have 0 in 1 this season (0 of 1 at home), Iwaki 1 in 1. Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 42% and 46%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 1 and 1 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 42% and 42%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 43%.
Head to head. These sides have met 5 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 60%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 44%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 42%, from expected goals of 1.44 for Fujieda MYFC and 0.92 for Iwaki. Folding in 30% of that view gives 44%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fujieda MYFC | 1 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Iwaki | 1 | 100% | 0% | 100% |
More: Fujieda MYFC season stats · Iwaki season stats · J2 League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.