Brasileirao (W) · Saturday, 15 August 2026 · 19:00. Final score 4–1 (half-time 2–1). Before kick-off we rated it 53% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 5, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 47% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33% | 67% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 51% | 49% | Yes |
The result model puts Fluminense W at 60%, the draw at 22% and America Mineiro W at 18%, from expected goals of 1.9 and 0.94.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.75 | 54% | 53% | -1% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.05 | 46% | 47% | +1% |
| Both teams to score | 2.10 | 44% | 51% | +7% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Fluminense W 1.33, draw 4.50, America Mineiro W 8.00.
The league sets the starting point. Brasileirao (W) has produced over 2.5 goals in 56% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Fluminense W have 6 in 15 this season (3 of 7 at home), America Mineiro W 6 in 15 (6 of 7 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 50% and 55%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 53%.
Head to head. These sides have met 2 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 50%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 53%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 54%, from expected goals of 1.9 for Fluminense W and 0.94 for America Mineiro W. Folding in 30% of that view gives 53%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fluminense W | 15 | 40% | 20% | 47% |
| America Mineiro W | 15 | 40% | 33% | 27% |
More: Fluminense W season stats · America Mineiro W season stats · Brasileirao (W) table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.