K League 1 · Saturday, 15 August 2026 · 11:30. Final score 4–2 (half-time 0–1). Before kick-off we rated it 53% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 6, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 53% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% | 72% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 54% | 46% | Yes |
The result model puts FC Seoul at 38%, the draw at 28% and Daejeon Citizen at 35%, from expected goals of 1.23 and 1.18.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.90 | 50% | 47% | -3% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.90 | 50% | 53% | +3% |
| Both teams to score | 1.73 | 54% | 54% | +0% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: FC Seoul 1.95, draw 3.40, Daejeon Citizen 3.50.
The league sets the starting point. K League 1 has produced over 2.5 goals in 46% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. FC Seoul have 12 in 22 this season (5 of 10 at home), Daejeon Citizen 8 in 22 (5 of 11 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 50% and 43%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 46%.
Head to head. These sides have met 10 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 70%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 49%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 43%, from expected goals of 1.23 for FC Seoul and 1.18 for Daejeon Citizen. Folding in 30% of that view gives 47%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Seoul | 22 | 55% | 27% | 50% |
| Daejeon Citizen | 22 | 36% | 27% | 45% |
More: FC Seoul season stats · Daejeon Citizen season stats · K League 1 table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.