Eredivisie · Saturday, 15 August 2026 · 19:00. Final score 1–2 (half-time 0–1). Before kick-off we rated it 68% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 3, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 68% | 32% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 42% | 58% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 67% | 33% | Yes |
The result model puts Excelsior at 40%, the draw at 23% and PSV Eindhoven at 36%, from expected goals of 1.64 and 1.55.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.36 | 70% | 68% | -1% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 3.10 | 30% | 32% | +1% |
| Both teams to score | 1.50 | 63% | 67% | +4% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Excelsior 6.25, draw 4.75, PSV Eindhoven 1.48.
The league sets the starting point. Eredivisie has produced over 2.5 goals in 62% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Excelsior have 1 in 1 this season, PSV Eindhoven 1 in 1. Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 63% and 63%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 1 and 1 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 62% and 84%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 71%.
Head to head. These sides have met 4 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 75%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 71%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 62%, from expected goals of 1.64 for Excelsior and 1.55 for PSV Eindhoven. Folding in 30% of that view gives 68%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Excelsior | 1 | 100% | 100% | 0% |
| PSV Eindhoven | 1 | 100% | 100% | 100% |
More: Excelsior season stats · PSV Eindhoven season stats · Eredivisie table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.