League One · Saturday, 15 August 2026 · 15:00. Final score 3–0 (half-time 0–0). Before kick-off we rated it 54% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 3, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 46% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% | 66% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 53% | 47% | Yes |
The result model puts East Kilbride at 56%, the draw at 22% and Cove Rangers at 21%, from expected goals of 1.88 and 1.07.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.44 | 65% | 54% | -11% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.62 | 35% | 46% | +11% |
| Both teams to score | 1.67 | 56% | 53% | -3% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: East Kilbride 1.44, draw 4.33, Cove Rangers 5.25.
The league sets the starting point. League One has produced over 2.5 goals in 49% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. East Kilbride have 1 in 2 this season (1 of 1 at home), Cove Rangers 0 in 2 (0 of 1 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 51% and 45%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 2 and 2 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 67% and 40%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 53%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 56%, from expected goals of 1.88 for East Kilbride and 1.07 for Cove Rangers. Folding in 30% of that view gives 54%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| East Kilbride | 2 | 50% | 50% | 100% |
| Cove Rangers | 2 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
More: East Kilbride season stats · Cove Rangers season stats · League One table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.