PSL · Saturday, 15 August 2026 · 19:00. Final score 1–1 (half-time 0–1). Before kick-off we rated it 76% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 2, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 24% | 76% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 11% | 89% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 34% | 66% | No |
The result model puts Durban City at 40%, the draw at 32% and Richards Bay at 28%, from expected goals of 1.04 and 0.82.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 3.00 | 31% | 24% | -7% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.36 | 69% | 76% | +7% |
| Both teams to score | 2.50 | 38% | 34% | -4% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Durban City 2.20, draw 2.75, Richards Bay 3.40.
The league sets the starting point. PSL has produced over 2.5 goals in 30% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Durban City have 0 in 2 this season (0 of 1 at home), Richards Bay 1 in 2 (0 of 1 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 27% and 30%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 2 and 2 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 18% and 27%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 24%.
Head to head. These sides have met 2 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 0%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 22%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 29%, from expected goals of 1.04 for Durban City and 0.82 for Richards Bay. Folding in 30% of that view gives 24%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Durban City | 2 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Richards Bay | 2 | 50% | 0% | 100% |
More: Durban City season stats · Richards Bay season stats · PSL table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.